Athens Meeting 19-20 June 2003, Contribution by CP of
Brazil
--------------------------------------------------------
From: SolidNet
http://www.pcdob.org.br , mailto:internacional@pcdob.org.br
==================================================
by Jos� Reinaldo Carvalho,

WANING THE FLAG OF A WORLD OF PEACE DEMOCRACY, NATIONAL
INDEPENDENCE AND SOCIAL PROGRESS

Dear Comrades,

The Communist Party of Brazil greets all the present
delegations and especially the Central Committee of the
Communist Party of Greece for holding this seminar, an
event of high political and ideological meaning with an
outstanding influence on the articulation of communist and
labor parties all over the world, on the coordination of
their actions, on stimulating its strengthening and
promoting unity. Events like that has historical
repercussions. They are part of a prolonged process of
recovery that the communist and labor movement presently
undergoes after the defeat resulting from the downfall of
socialism in the majority of countries where it was being
developed. Thanks to the initiative of the KKE, our parties
have the opportunity to carry out a fruitful exchange of
ideas that will support concrete action. The Communist
Party of Brazil values highly such meetings and collects
important benefits from them. From the reflections
developed here, we extract important inspiring political
indications of movements along with the masses and broad
political sectors with which it is indispensable to workin
a single-front perspectivefor the cause that unites the
peoples in the present somber period humankind is going
through: peace. Therefore, it seems adequate to persist in
what we were doing much before we took other steps. Our
preoccupation in the present stage of building our movement
and our unity has more to do with delivering results than
with the form of organization. Rigidity, precipitation and
artificialism may lead us to political isolation and,
instead of furthering unity and strengthening communist and
labor parties, it could curb advances. The Seminar of
Communist and Labor Parties that is held every year in
Athens under the auspices of the Greek comrades, with a
character of consultation, without rigid or hierarchical
levels, seems to be the most adequate form to further the
efforts for strengthening the political and ideological
unity and for promoting the activity of international
solidarity among our Parties.

The subject we approach here could not be more opportune:
the struggle for peace.

The great global-scale mass demonstrations for peace and
against the imperialist war and the broad movement
condemning the US attack on Iraq is one of the greatest
events of our time. Its true meaning will be understood
with historical time and its results will be felt in many
other political and social struggles. We have the clear
impression that the movement for peace tends to acquire
permanence and will be at the core of the political actions
carried out by the communist and labor movement for a long
time. In our reflections and analyses, February 15 and
March 15 of the present year will always be an important
reference. In that moment the peoples wrote an
unprecedented page on contemporary history. They were the
protagonists of a transcendental episode, they inaugurated
a new moment in the anti-imperialist fight, they set the
milestone of a new movement, they unleashed a force that
was up till then refrained and latent, with an
internationalist character that coadunates with proletarian
internationalism. The joint an simultaneous action of broad
popular masses under the flag of peace is a sign of a new
time, a kind of internationalism of the peoples, of the
forces fighting barbarism, with a flexible form and
revolutionaryalthough imprecisemeaning. We think that this
is an objective progressive trend as the oppression
resulting from capitalist globalization is generalized and
war of aggression is the only way imperialism can find to
face its crisis.

The mobilization of the masses against the imperialist war
is an important factor in the presently evolving political
scene and it has a strategic meaning. It contributes
decisively to isolate the US imperialism and stimulates the
creation of poles of contestation regarding the US
hegemony. The fact that millions took the streets to wave
the flag of peace has influenced several governments that
opposed war and also the contestation that took place
within the United Nations.

We are witnessing a great phenomenonwaving a flag of
struggle that is both broad and radical, the political
movement of the masses is once again playing a leading role
in our time. It turns the struggle for peace into a
revolutionary flag to be waved, a flag able to gather broad
sectors around it, able to unleash refrained energies, to
mobilize broad popular contingents, to define fields.

The struggle for peace signals for the creation of a broad
international front against imperialism. Should it be
conducted well, that struggle may take proportions never
witnessed in any other historical period. It is a movement
that involves not only the political and social
organizations of revolutionary character, but also a broad
range of sectors with diversified origins, constitutions
and orientations. Exclusivism, hegemonism and preconceived
points of view will have a harmful effect on the movement
and will only contribute to divide and isolate it. In that
sense, the World Social Forum is the convergence point for
movements of diverse orientations and opens the way for the
mobilization of broad masses. Despite the hegemony of
social-democratic sectors and other points of view that are
different from and even antagonistic to the ones the
communists have, the WSF presently furthers the struggle
for peace and contributes objectively to the formation of
the anti-imperialist front.

In the struggle for peace, one cannot underestimate the
importance of the political and diplomatic position of
democratic and progressive governments that, in their own
constitutions, represent broad coalitions of political
forces. In that sense, the position of the Brazilian
government under President Luiz In�cio Lula da Silva'
administration is noteworthy. Even facing a very hard
economic situation under the conditions and constraints
imposed by international financial organizations, it has
been able to maintain a foreign policy aimed at defending
national sovereignty and the integration of Latin America,
at the same time making clear and dignified statements
against the imperialist war. The correct consideration of
those new possibilities is essential to mobilize the
masses, to strengthen and amplify the unity of popular
forces, an effort that must be made in all countries while
taking into account national peculiarities.

Moreover, it is important in building the front against the
belligerent threats of the imperialist North American
superpower and in exploring judiciously the contradictions
among the imperialist forcesevidently without fostering
illusions of alliances made with an imperialist force in
order to fight another one. The important thing is to have
discernment to distinguish the main target in the fight.

With that same sense of broadness and taking into
consideration the concrete conditions of the struggle, we
think that the fight for peace is closely knitted to the
defense of international legality, of the
self-determination of the peoples, of the juridical order,
of the collective system of security and of multilateralism
in the political order, which is the contrary to
hegemonism. Despite all its limitations, it is important to
fight for strengthening the UN as a field for the exercise
of multilateralism.

That understanding of the need and broadness of the
movement for peace derives from the characterization we
make of this grave moment and of the very serious threats
looming over humankind.

We are facing the most brutal imperialist offensive against
sovereign peoples and nations. The danger of a new
totalitarianism, a new kind of fascism, looms over the
world. Convinced of its predestinations, including by
divine design, the leading core of US imperialism has
designed a strategy of imperial rule that may have
devastating effects to humankind.

The United States makes its moves in the international
scene while prioritizing its interests, what imposes all
sorts of restrictions to the sovereignty of other countries
and collides with the national interests of all nations
that fight for room for self-determination or aspire to
become regional or global powers. Based on the sensation of
superpower and on its undisputed military superiority,
including nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass
destruction, the United States develops its new strategy of
national security, the so-called Bush Doctrine that is
supported by three pillars: to combat the terrorism and
national states that grant shelter to terrorists and/or
develop weapons of mass destruction, considered "outlow
states", the unrestricted action in the name of the
essential interests of the North American superpower and
use of military force.

That obstination in prioritizing the US interests and the
repetition of the slogan "America in the first place" took
the White House not only to an unprecedented militarization
and to the fulfillment of belligerent actions, such as in
the cases of Afghanistan and Iraq, but also to the practice
of an aggressive and voracious foreign policy that can be
called unilateral only for diplomatic reasons. Convinced
that the "infinite war against terrorism" by means of
successive "preventive" wars against "outlaw states" is the
only means of granting the US interests, the Bush
administration keeps on maintaining the world under threat,
even after the war against Iraq. Alternatively, new targets
are being mentioned: Syria, Iran, North Korea and Cuba.
Those strategic objectives are corresponded by a foreign
policy that ignores the norms of international law, the
self-determination of the peoples, the collective security
system and also belittles multilateral organizations. The
US wars have ruined the multilateral system, aggravating
the world's instability, creating a chaotic and threatening
situation to peace and the security of all sovereign
peoples and nations.

On the other hand, the evolving political scenario reveals
the unprecedented international isolation of the United
States and the open contestation of its policy. The
loneliness with which Washington declared and waged war
against Iraq, its blow against the UN and the disdain shown
to the position of countries such as Germany, France,
Russia and China reveal the intrinsic fragility of the
political position of the United States. That is one of
many signs thatparadoxically, in a moment when it shows the
greatest powerthe political leadership of the United States
is declining and that its imperial rule is being supported
more and more exclusively by its military supremacy.
Paradoxically, the United States revels its vulnerabilities
while is leaving the war as winner

As a result, a new geopolitical scene emerges with
consequences to United Nations' diplomacy and multilateral
system, which may be marked by important realignments.
Strictly, the struggle for a new international order is
mandatory. After being considered irrelevant and
irresponsible by the United States and having its
fundamental documents turned into empty words, the UN will
never be the same again. And after violating the
international norms, making use of brute force despite the
general disapproval, the US leadership will no longer be
carried out with the same tranquility as before. The
isolation of the United States will correspond to the
growing aggressiveness of its imperialism and the world
will undergo a period of severe turbulence and disquiet.

Middle East and Central Asia, the stages to the last US
military actions, are regions where sovereign countries are
turned into protectorates by means of military occupation
in the name of imperialist interests of controlling the oil
fields and ruling regions of strategic importance to the
exercise of international power and are still at the
epicenter of those turbulencesand all signs indicate that
they will remain in that situation for a long time.

The US occupation in Iraq is not being easy. The fear in
the eyes of the soldiers, the massacres and atrocities they
are committing are showing that probably the cost of old
Mesopotamia transformation into a US military protectorate
will be very much expensive. It was relatively easy to
unseat Saddam Hussein and militarily occupy the country.
Practically, there was no resistance by the regular Iraqi
army. But the facts are showing that the US occupation is
not going to be easy as we can tell by the irregular
demonstrations of resistance and the high number of violent
incidents. Up till now, the United States was not able to
convince the Iraqi people of the "freeing" character of its
occupation action.

In the same region, the instability in the relation with
Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran and especially the
insurmountable difficulties to "draw the map" and follow a
"path" that leads to peace for Israelis and Palestinians
reveal the permanence of explosive factors. The perspective
is not one of mitigation, but one of aggravating problems.

In Latin America, a different process of political and
social struggle resulting in the strengthening of the
struggle against North American imperialism is taking
place. Despite the difficulties implied in political
transitions aimed at consolidating new democratic forces in
the government in countries such as Brazil, Venezuela and
Ecuador, there has been a doubtless advance in the
continent's progressive forces. They are living a new
political situation. The next stage will be characterized
by the US offensive to impose the FTAA and the resistance
of the countries and peoples to that neocolonialist action.

The contradictions among imperialist forces and the
unstable political situation are also related to the
international crisis of capitalism. All main countries are
showing decreased economic activity without perspectives of
growth. All forecasts of international organizations point
to stagnations and, in some cases, to recession. War did
not stimulate economic activity. Much to the contrary. The
estimated growth of the US economy was of 2.2% to the
present year, but the first quarter resulted in only 1.6%.
Starting from the United States, the world's largest
economy and the core of international life, a crisis of
vast proportions is being irradiated. There is a
perspective of world stagnation, of decreasing demand and
of decreasing growth rates in the world's most important
economies. Also in the case of dependent and averagely
industrialized countries such as Argentina, Mexico and
Brazil, to mention only the paradigmatic cases, the
perspective is one of bankruptcy resulting form the
application of neoliberal policies.

The US economic decline is a historical process that
started three decades ago. That decline determines its
political, diplomatic and military actions. It is the
background to the present international political crisis,
to the trend towards militarization, to the contradictions
among imperialist forces. The world's largest economy is
also the country with the largest foreign debt, 7 trillion
dollars (more than 60% its GDP), and with a record current
account deficit of about 500 billion dollars and a similar
deficit in its trade balance.

A new geopolitical scene that may be characterized by new
realignments emerges from such a situation of belligerent
threats and economic crisis. There is an urgent need for a
new international order, since new poles are being formed
in a long-term geopolitical dispute.

The disagreement between, on the one hand, Germany and
France, and, on the other hand, the United States regarding
the latter's aggression to Iraq will repeat in other
episodes and will be present in new international crises.
Great imperialist interests are at stake in the relations
among those powers, interests that are often confronted and
that eliminate the illusions regarding the existence of a
power in the globalized world that is able to clear the
contradictions and conflicts between imperialist forces.

In such a complex background of international conflicts,
one cannot lose sight of the strategic role of socialist
China, which economically and militarily strengthened
national power will may show its influence on the events as
a progressive factor, favoring the peoples.

In the evolution of the international situation and in the
trend of strengthen of continental and half-continental
countries, as Brazil, Russia, India (despite the
administrations of the latter two) as the possibilities
which are being opened to new partners and alliances are
new phenomena to be take in account and analyzed with a
deep sense of observation, that may act as
countertendencies to the hegemonic US unilateralism.

The present international situation is complex to the
peoples of the world and especially to communist parties.
There are no readymade or paved paths to follow. Instead,
what we have ahead are impenetrable rocky crossroads. We
think that the great task is to resist and find the most
adequate ways in each country to an accumulation of forces
by means of taking safe steps that allow us to reach
victories in the struggle for democracy, peace, national
independence and social progress, having always present the
perspective of socialism.

Athens Meeting 19-20 June 2003, Contribution by CP of
Brazil [Sp.]
--------------------------------------------------------
From: SolidNet
http://www.pcdob.org.br , mailto:internacional@pcdob.org.br
==================================================
by Jos� Reinaldo Carvalho,

Estimados Camaradas,

O Partido Comunista do Brasil sa�da todas as delega��es
presentes e cumprimenta em especial o Comit� Central do
Partido Comunista da Gr�cia pela realiza��o deste
semin�rio, evento de alta significa��o pol�tica e
ideol�gica, com influ�ncia de suma import�ncia na
articula��o entre os partidos comunistas e oper�rios de
todo mundo, na coordena��o de suas a��es, no est�mulo ao
seu fortalecimento e na promo��o da unidade. Eventos como
este t�m proje��o hist�rica. Fazem parte de um prolongado
processo de recupera��o do movimento comunista e oper�rio,
depois da derrota resultante da queda derrocada do
socialismo na maioria dos pa�ses em que estava sendo
edificado. Gra�as � iniciativa do KKE t�m os nossos
partidos a possibilidade de realizar um frut�fero
interc�mbio de id�ias, base para as a��es concretas. O
Partido Comunista do Brasil valoriza enormemente tais
encontros, dele extrai importantes subs�dios. Das reflex�es
aqui realizadas, extra�mos importantes indica��es pol�ticas
inspiradoras de movimenta��es junto �s massas e a amplos
setores pol�ticos junto com os quais � indispens�vel atuar,
numa perspectiva de frente-�nica, em torno da causa que
unifica os povos nesta quadra sombria que atravessa a
humanidade: a paz. Por isso, parece-nos adequado persistir
naquilo que estamos fazendo bem antes de dar outros passos.
A nossa preocupa��o, na atual fase de constru��o do nosso
movimento e da nossa unidade, � menos com a forma de
organiza��o e mais com a realiza��o. O enrijecimento, a
precipita��o, o artificialismo podem nos lan�ar no
isolamento pol�tico e, ao inv�s de impulsionar a unidade e
fortalecer os partidos comunistas e oper�rios, poderia
atuar como fator impeditivo do avan�o. O Semin�rio dos
Partidos Comunistas e Oper�rios que se realiza todos os
anos em Atenas sob os ausp�cios dos camaradas gregos, de
car�ter consultivo, sem inst�ncias r�gidas e
hierarquizadas, parece-nos a forma mais adequada para
prosseguir nos esfor�os pelo fortalecimento da unidade
pol�tica e ideol�gica e para a atividade de solidariedade
internacional entre os nossos Partidos.

N�o podia ser mais oportuno o tema em torno do qual os
reunimos: a luta pela paz.

As grandes manifesta��es maci�as em escala planet�ria pela
paz e contra a guerra imperialista e o amplo movimento que
teve por foco a condena��o do ataque estadunidense ao
Iraque se inscrevem entre os grandes acontecimentos de
nossa �poca. Seu verdadeiro significado ser� aquilatado com
o tempo hist�rico e seus reflexos se far�o sentir em muitas
outras lutas pol�ticas e sociais. Sentimos uma n�tida
impress�o de que o movimento pela paz tende a adquirir
perman�ncia e durante muito tempo estar� no centro das
a��es pol�ticas do movimento comunista e oper�rio. Em
nossas reflex�es e an�lises pol�ticas as datas de 15 de
fevereiro e 15 de mar�o do ano em curso ser�o sempre uma
refer�ncia importante. Naquele momento os povos escreveram
uma p�gina in�dita na hist�ria contempor�nea.
Protagonizaram um epis�dio transcendente, inauguraram um
momento novo na luta antiimperialista, fundaram o marco
mili�rio de um novo movimento, desencadearam uma for�a at�
ent�o represada e latente, com car�ter internacionalista -
que em nada se choca com o internacionalismo prolet�rio. A
a��o conjugada e simult�nea de amplas massas populares sob
a bandeira da paz � sinal dos novos tempos, uma esp�cie de
internacionalismo dos povos, das for�as em luta contra a
barb�rie,com forma flex�vel e conte�do revolucion�rio,
ainda que impreciso. Parece-nos ser esta uma tend�ncia
objetiva progressista, quando se generaliza a opress�o
decorrente da globaliza��o capitalista e a guerra de
agress�o se imp�e como �nico caminho do imperialismo para
enfrentar sua crise.

A mobiliza��o de massas contra a guerra imperialista �
fator importante no quadro pol�tico em evolu��o e tem
dimens�o estrat�gica. Contribui decisivamente para isolar o
imperialismo norte-americano e impulsiona a forma��o de
p�los de contesta��o � hegemonia estadunidense. O fato de
milh�es de pessoas terem sa�do �s ruas com a bandeira da
paz influiu na posi��o de v�rios governos que se opuseram �
guerra e na contesta��o que teve lugar no �mbito das Na��es
Unidas.

Estamos presenciando um grande fen�meno com uma bandeira
de luta simultaneamente ampla e radical, retorna ao
prosc�nio da nossa �poca o protagonismo do movimento
pol�tico de massas. Tudo isso faz da luta pela paz uma
bandeira revolucion�ria, capaz de unir amplos setores,
desencadear energias represadas, mobilizar amplos
contingentes populares, definir campos.

A luta pela paz sinaliza para a forma��o de uma ampla
frente mundial contra o imperialismo. Bem conduzida, essa
luta poder� assumir propor��es jamais vistas em qualquer
outra �poca hist�rica. Trata-se de um movimento que abarca
n�o apenas as organiza��es pol�ticas e sociais de classe e
car�ter revolucion�rio, mas inclui um amplo espectro de
setores com origens, constitui��o e orienta��o
diversificada . O exclusivismo, o hegemonismo, as vis�es
preconcebidas ter�o efeito mals�o sobre o movimento e s�
contribuir�o para dividi-lo ou isol�-lo. Nesse sentido, o
F�rum Social Mundial tem-se constitu�do como um ponto de
converg�ncia de movimentos de variadas orienta��es que
potencializa a mobiliza��o de amplas massas.Malgrado a
hegemonia de setores sociais-democratas e de outras vis�es
de mundo distintas e mesmo antag�nicas � dos comunistas, o
FSM � hoje fator que impulsiona a luta pela paz e
objetivamente contribui para a forma��o da frente
antiimperialista.

Na luta pela paz, n�o se pode subestimar a import�ncia do
posicionamento pol�tico e diplom�tico de governos
democr�ticos e progressistas que em sua pr�pria
constitui��o representam coaliz�es amplas de for�as
pol�ticas. � not�vel nesse sentido a posi��o do governo
brasileiro do presidente Lula, que mesmo numa situa��o
econ�mica dific�lima, sob os condicionamentos e
constrangimentos impostos pelos organismos financeiros
internacionais, tem sido capaz de sustentar uma pol�tica
externa voltada para a defesa da soberania nacional e a
integra��o do continente latino-americano e se pronunciou
com clareza e altivez contra a guerra imperialista. A
correta considera��o dessas novas possibilidades �
essencial para mobilizar as massas e refor�ar e ampliar a
unidade das for�as populares, esfor�o que deve ser feito em
todos os pa�ses, consideradas as peculiaridades nacionais.

Outrossim, � importante para construir a frente contr�ria
�s amea�as belicistas da superpot�ncia imperialista
norte-americana,explorar judiciosamente as contradi��es
interimperialistas , sem evidentemente alimentar ilus�es de
aliar-se a um imperialismo para combater o outro. O
importante � ter discernimento para distinguir o alvo
principal da luta.

Com esse mesmo sentido de amplitude e observ�ncia das
condi��es concretas em que se desenvolve a luta,
consideramos que a luta pela paz se entrela�a com a defesa
da legalidade internacional, a autodetermina��o dos povos,
da ordem jur�dica, do sistema de seguran�a coletiva e do
multilateralismo na ordem pol�tica, ant�poda do
hegemonismo. Malgrado todas as suas limita��es, �
importante lutar pelo fortalecimento da ONU como espa�o de
exerc�cio do multilateralismo.

Esta compreens�o acerca da necessidade de amplitude no
movimento pela paz emana da caracteriza��o que fazemos do
grave momento e das seri�ssimas amea�as que pairam sobre a
humanidade.

Estamos diante da mais brutal ofensiva imperialista contra
os povos e na��es soberanas. O perigo de um novo
totalitarismo, nova esp�cie de fascismo, paira sobre o
mundo. Convencido da sua predestina��o, inclusive por
des�gnio divino, o n�cleo dirigente do imperialismo
norte-americano elaborou uma estrat�gia de dom�nio imperial
que pode ter efeitos devastadores para a humanidade.

Os Estados Unidos atuam na cena internacional com o
conceito da primazia dos interesses norte-americanos, o que
imp�e restri��es de toda natureza � soberania de outros
pa�ses e se choca com os interesses nacionais de quantas
na��es lutem por espa�os de autodetermina��o ou aspirem a
se tornar pot�ncias regionais ou globais. Baseados na
sensa��o do superpoder e na incontrast�vel superioridade
militar, o que inclui as armas nucleares e outras de
destrui��o em massa, os EUA elaboraram sua nova estrat�gia
de seguran�a nacional, a chamada Doutrina Bush assentada em
tr�s pilares: combater os novos inimigos o terrorismo e os
estados nacionais que abrigam terroristas e/ou desenvolvem
armas de destrui��o em massa, a a��o desenfreada em nome
dos interesses essenciais da superpot�ncia norte-americana
e a preemp��o para remover as causas do terrorismo e
enquadrar os chamados estados irrespons�veis.

Essa obstina��o na primazia dos interesses
norte-americanos, a repeti��o do slogan "A Am�rica em
primeiro lugar" levou a Casa Branca n�o somente a uma
militariza��o inaudita e � consuma��o de a��es belicistas,
como no Afeganist�o e no Iraque, mas tamb�m � pr�tica de
uma pol�tica externa agressiva e voraz, que somente por
raz�es diplom�ticas se pode chamar de unilateral.
Convencido de que a " guerra infinita contra o terrorismo"
por meio de uma sucess�o de guerras "preventivas" contra os
"estados bandidos" � o meio para assegurar a primazia dos
interesses estadunidenses, o governo Bush continua mantendo
o mundo sob amea�a, mesmo depois da guerra ao Iraque.
Alternadamente, novos alvos s�o mencionados: S�ria, Ir�,
Cor�ia do Norte, Cuba. A esses objetivos estrat�gicos
corresponde uma pol�tica externa em que se faz tabula rasa
das normas do direito internacional, da autodetermina��o
dos povos , do sistema de seguran�a coletiva e se
menoscabam as organiza��es multilaterais. As guerras
norte-americanas fizeram ruir o sistema multilateral,
agravaram a instabilidade no mundo, criaram uma situa��o
ca�tica e amea�adora � paz e � seguran�a de todos os povos
e na��es soberanas.

Por outro lado, o quadro pol�tico em evolu��o revela um
in�dito isolamento internacional dos Estados Unidos e uma
aberta contesta��o � sua pol�tica.A solid�o com que
Washington declarou e fez a guerra ao Iraque, o golpe de
for�a sobre a ONU,o desd�m � posi��o de pa�ses como
Alemanha e Fran�a revelam a fragilidade intr�nseca da
posi��o pol�tica dos Estados Unidos. Este � um entre muitos
sinais de que paradoxalmente, no momento em que mais exibem
for�a, pronunciam-se tamb�m os sinais do decl�nio da
lideran�a pol�tica dos Estados Unidos e que seu dom�nio
imperial se sustenta cada dia mais exclusivamente na
supremacia militar.

Emerge em conseq��ncia um novo quadro geopol�tico, com
reflexos na diplomacia e no sistema multilateral das Na��es
Unidas, que dever� ser marcado por importantes
realinhamentos . A rigor, imp�e-se a luta por uma nova
ordem internacional. Depois de ser considerada irrelevante
e irrespons�vel pelos Estados Unidos e de ter seus
documentos fundamentais transformados em letra morta, a ONU
nunca mais ser� a mesma. E com a viola��o das normas
internacionais, recorrendo � for�a bruta apesar da
reprova��o geral, tamb�m a lideran�a norte-americana n�o se
exercer� com a mesma tranq�ilidade de antes. Ao isolamento
dos Estados Unidos corresponder� uma agressividade
crescente desse imperialismo e o mundo viver� uma era de
grav�ssimas turbul�ncias e inquieta��es. Paradoxalmente,os
Estados Unidos saem vitoriosos e mais vulner�veis da guerra
ao Iraque.

O Oriente M�dio e a �sia Central, palco das �ltimas
investidas militares estadunidenses, onde est� em curso a
ocupa��o manu-militari e a transforma��o de pa�ses
soberanos em protetorados, em nome dos interesses
imperialistas de controle das jazidas petrol�feras e de
dom�nio sobre regi�es com import�ncia estrat�gica para o
exerc�cio do poder internacional continuam e tudo indica
que assim ser� por muito tempo no epicentro dessas
turbul�ncias.

N�o est� sendo tranq�ila a ocupa��o norte-americana no
Iraque. O medo estampado nos olhares dos seus soldados, os
massacres e atrocidades que cometem mostram que muito
provavelmente o custo da transforma��o da antiga
Mesopot�mia em protetorado militar norte-amereicano ser�
alt�ssimo . Foi relativamente f�cil desalojar o regime de
Saddam Huseein e ocupar militarmente o pa�s.Praticamente
n�o houve resist�ncia por parte do Ex�rcito regular
iraquiano. Mas os fatos v�m revelando que n�o ser� f�cil a
ocupa��o , haja vista as demonstra��es de resist�ncia
irregular e o elevado n�mero de incidentes violentos. At�
agora, os Estados Unidos n�o conseguiram convencer o povo
iraquiano do car�ter " libertador" da sua ocupa��o.

Na mesma regi�o, a instabilidade no relacionamento com a
S�ria, a Ar�bia Saudita e o Ir� e principalmente as
dificuldades incontorn�veis para "tra�ar" o mapa e trafegar
por um "caminho" que leve � paz entre israelenses e
palestinos revelam a perman�ncia de fatores explosivos. Ali
a perspectiva n�o � de distensionamento mas de agudiza��o
dos problemas.

Na Am�rica Latina est� em curso um diferenciado processo de
luta pol�tica e social cuja resultante � o refor�o da luta
contra o imperialismo norte-americano. Muito embora as
dificuldades pr�prias de uma transi��o pol�tica para
consolidar novas for�as democr�ticas � frente de governos
em pa�ses com o Brasil, a Venezuela e o Equador, �
indubit�vel o avan�o das for�as progressistas no
continente. Vive-se ali novo cen�rio pol�tico. O pr�ximo
per�odo ser� marcado pela ofensiva estadunidense para impor
a ALCA e a resist�ncia dos pa�ses e povos a essa a��o
neocolonialista.

As contradi��es interimperialistas e a inst�vel situa��o
pol�tica est�o relacionadas tamb�m com a crise mundial do
capitalismo. Em todos os pa�ses centrais observa-se uma
queda da atividade econ�mica, sem que se vislumbrem
perspectivas de crescimento.Todas as previs�es dos
organismos internacionais apontam para a estagna��o e em
alguns casos recess�o. A guerra n�o estimulou a atividade
econ�mica.Muito pelo contr�rio. Para uma previs�o inicial
de crescimento da economia norteamericana em 2,2% para
2003, cresceu apenas 1,6% no primeiro trimestre, em ritmo
anual. A partir dos Estados Unidos,maior economia do mundo
e centro nevr�lgico da vida internacional,irradia-se uma
crise de vastas propor��es. H� um cen�rio de estagna��o
planet�ria,de retra��o da demanda, de queda dos �ndices de
crescimento no conjunto das mais importantes economias do
mundo. Tamb�m entre os pa�ses dependentes e medianamente
industrializados, como a Argentina,o M�xico e o Brasil,
para citar apenas os casos paradigm�ticos, o panorama � de
bancarrota, resultante da aplica��o das pol�ticas
neoliberais.

O decl�nio econ�mico norte-americano � um processo
hist�rico que vem de h� tr�s d�cadas.� este decl�nio que
condiciona as suas a��es pol�ticas,diplom�ticas e
militares. � o pano de fundo da atual crise pol�tica
internacional, da deriva militarista, das contradi��es
interimperialistas. A maior economia do mundo � tamb�m a do
pa�s com a maior d�vida externa 7 trilh�es de d�lares (
mais de 60% do PIB), de um d�ficit recorde em conta
corrente de cerca de 500 bilh�es de d�lares e um semelhante
d�ficit na balan�a comercial..

Nesse cen�rio de amea�as b�licas e crise econ�mica emerge
um novo quadro geopol�tico, que poder� ser marcado por
novos realinhamentos.Imp�e-se a necessidade de uma nova
ordem internacional, porquanto se formam objetivamente
novos p�los numa disputa geopol�tica de longo prazo.

A disc�rdia entre a Alemanha e a Fran�a, por um lado, e os
EUA,por outro, em torno da agress�o deste ultimo ao Iraque
se repetir� em outros epis�dios e estar� presente em novas
crises. Trata-se de grandes interesses imperialistas em
confronto diante dos quais se esfumam as ilus�es na
exist�ncia de um poder supranacional do mundo globalizado
apagando as contradi��es e conflitos de natureza
interimperialista.

Nesse cen�rio complexo de conflitos internacionais n�o se
pode perder de vista o papel estrat�gico da China
socialista, cujo poderio nacional fortalecido econ�mica e
militarmente influenciar� nos acontecimentos como fator
progressista em favor dos povos.

Na evolu��o do quadro internacional a tend�ncia ao
fortalecimento de pa�ses continentais ou semi-continentais
como o Brasil, a R�ssia e a �ndia ( malgrado o car�ter dos
governos desses dois �ltimos) e as possibilidades que se
abrem de novas parcerias e alian�as s�o fen�menos novos a
considerar e verificar com profundo senso de observa��o,
que atuam como contra-tend�ncias ao unilateralismo
hegem�nico norte-americano.

Para os povos de todo o mundo e em especial para os
partidos comunistas a presente situa��o internacional
afigura-se complexa. N�o h� caminhos prontos nem
previamente pavimentados. Antes, o que temos diante de n�s
s�o encruzilhadas �nvias e pedregosas. Parece-nos que a
grande tarefa � resistir e encontrar os caminhos mais
adequados em cada pa�s a uma acumula��o de for�as com
passos seguros que permita alcan�ar vit�rias na luta pela
democracia, a paz, a independ�ncia nacional e o progresso
social, tendo sempre presente a perspectiva do socialismo.